We apologize for the lack of free entertainment; know that we love you all and we're sorry to disappoint everyone. Suffice it to say I had a terrible week, and I didn't have much comedy in me. As for TY, he's just a lazy bastard.
But we're both sorry, and we'll try to do better in the future. We know that there are a lot of options out there in the category of North Texas-centric/dick joke websites, and we don't want to see any of our dozen plus(?) loyal fans abandon us.
But before I dredge up the memories of a weekend in Waco and before we celebrate the start of basketball season, let's address a valid question that's being posed with increasing frequency by some North Texas football fans:
What's so super about Gary DeLoach?Why does Gary DeLoach appear to be immune from the criticism that was aimed at his predecessor? It's a very fair question, and it deserves fair consideration.
First off, let's go ahead and state that after the FAU game (11/8/08), North Texas ranks 119th in Total Defense and 118th in Scoring Defense among all Division 1-A (or FBS, however you prefer to call it) football programs. If Gary DeLoach would respond to our phone calls, emails, love letters, strip-o-grams, carrier pigeons, or what have you, I'd wager that he'd be the first to tell you those sorts of results are not acceptable levels of performance.
The defense is struggling. North Texas is giving up a lot of points and a lot of yards. The man DeLoach was hired to replace led us to the worst defense (in terms of points allowed) in all of 1-A football. With 2 games left to go, DeLoach's defense has fought, clawed, and climbed their way up to... second to last in scoring defense.
Why aren't the masses screaming for blood like they were last year?
1) DeLoach has proven he can build a successful defense at North Texas.
As frustrating as the defensive struggles have been, DeLoach still brings a real reason to expect better days ahead. Fans who have followed the program for 6 years or more have already seen the results DeLoach is capable of generating here.
For newer fans unfamiliar with the statistics, before DeLoach took over as Defensive Coordinator, here were the stats from the team he inherited:
1999: 72nd in Scoring Defense and 93rd in Total Defense
And here were the stats from his three years leading the defense:
2000: 75th in Scoring Defense, 71st in Total Defense
2001: 40th in Scoring Defense, 42nd in Total Defense
2002: 3rd in Scoring Defense, 9th in Total Defense
The last time DeLoach took over, he didn't spark an immediate, dramatic improvement in year one, either. The defense he led in his first year performed pretty much the same as the defense he took over had performed the year before. But two years later, DeLoach had transformed North Texas into a top ten defense.
I don't think it's realistic to expect North Texas to be leading the country again by 2010... But I do think that if Gary DeLoach is still here, we'll be in the top 25%. And if we're not the best defense in our conference, we'll be very close to whoever is.
Whether it's fair or not, it's easier to be patient with a proven commodity. Much of the criticism directed at Todd Dodge wouldn't exist if the man had a history of success as a college coach. Some of the criticism of DeLoach's predecessor wouldn't have existed if the man had any experience at all beyond the high school level.
Why do I say "some" instead of "much" or "all"? Because...
2) Last year's collapse was more troubling than the struggles we're seeing this year.
That should not be taken to mean that the results on the field in 2008 are acceptable or that DeLoach should be exempt from criticism for this year's problems.
In 2006, the North Texas defense finished the season ranked 64th in Total Defense and 79th in Scoring Defense. In other words, middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed and a little below average in points allowed.
Only one of the members of the 2006 defense graduated before the 2007 season: Sky Pruitt. All in all, 17 players who had started some or all games on defense in 2006 returned for 2007.
DeLoach's predecessor took this returning crop of players and turned them into the worst defense in all of college football. The Mean Green finished the year 119th in Scoring Defense and 113th in Total Defense.
Sky Pruitt, talented as he may have been, did not singlehandedly carry the 2006 defense. When all but one return yet the results fall off so precipitously, the problem has to be coaching. You can't blame talent, because the exact same talent (though younger, smaller, and less experienced) had already demonstrated they were capable of significantly better results.
Exit the old guy, re-enter DeLoach.
But the previous DC wasn't the only one to leave in the offseason... Aaron Weathers, Brandon Monroe, Montey Stevenson, Derek Mendoza, Maurice Holman, Jeremiah Chapman, and Blake Burruss all exhausted their eligibility.
So while the 2007 team was full of seniors and experienced starters at every position, many of those players were not around for the beginning of this season. I don't mean to suggest that the players on this team aren't talented, but they certainly aren't as experienced (or as proven) as the ones that were on the roster in 2007. I do believe there are some very talented players on this year's defense, and many of the players are capable of much more than they've shown on the field so far in their careers.
As bad as the results this year have been so far, I still believe that when you consider the circumstances, what we saw in 2007 was much worse.
Given his track record, I'm inclined to believe that Gary DeLoach is not the problem, and that if the players aren't achieving their full potential, the primary fault is not with DeLoach. Contrast that to 2007, when we saw a dramatic regression from what the same defense achieved under Fred Bleil in 2006, and that same explanation can't be applied to DeLoach's predecessor.
3) Despite the relative disadvantages, one of last year's most troubling stats is improving.
Last season, the defensive strategy and tactics were baffling, to put it mildly. A steadfast reliance on man-to-man coverage in the secondary, a stubborn (and public) refusal to blitz to create pressure on the opposing quarterback... There were many coaching decisions that combined to frequently provide little real resistance to the opposing team's offense. The overall failure on every level inspired the creation of the moniker: The Green Carpet Defense.
To me, the most troubling problem with last year's defense was these Green Carpet episodes- the times when the team would offer little or no resistance. So, after last season was over, I went through the game reports and cataloged how many times this sort of situation occurred. I logged how many times the defense had allowed a touchdown drive of 50 yards or more in less than 2:30. And, in instances where the opposing team started on the North Texas side of the field due to turnovers or special teams breakdowns, I counted each drive where the opposing team scored a touchdown in 3 plays or less.
I chose the 2:30 time limit arbitrarily, because off the top of my head it seemed like a pretty decent yardstick for minimal resistance on a drive that took more than half the field. And I chose the 3 plays or less metric because I figured that if the defense found itself in a disadvantageous position, "resistance" could best be measured by whether or not the opposing offense needed more than one set of downs to score a touchdown.
The full catalog can be found here. In 2007, there were 44 such instances.
Apply the same measure to DeLoach so far this season, and his defense has allowed 38 touchdowns that meet the criteria through 10 games. In 2007, NT allowed 5 such touchdowns against MTSU and Arkansas State, and also allowed 5 such touchdowns in the last two games of the season. If DeLoach carries over the same results from either case, his defense will allow 43 touchdown drives that meet those standards.
43 isn't a dramatic improvement from 44, but again... Considering the circumstances leading into both seasons, to see any improvement is grounds for cautious optimism.
And remember, the 2:30 measure was just a random number that I pulled out of my ass. If the bar is set at 2:15, the comparison is 43 in 2007 vs. 33 so far in 2008. At 2:00, it's 40 in 2007 compared to 32 in 2008.
In 2006, there were only 12 total drives that took 3 plays or fewer or met the 2:30 criteria, 10 that met the 2:15, and 9 that were 2:00 or less.
When you apply the same metrics that convinced me the previous DC needed to be replaced, DeLoach is doing better with a less experienced and unproven lineup. So while we're still nowhere close to the bar set by our adequate defense of 2006 (to say nothing of DeLoach's success in his last term at North Texas), we are seeing a potential 20-25% reduction in these sorts of defensive collapses in DeLoach's first year back.
Is the defense performing at a level that's acceptable in the long run? Certainly not.
But given DeLoach's history, given the encouraging (though admittedly subjective) signs that we're seeing on the field, and given that the sort of defensive breakdowns that I felt were most troubling are slightly to significantly better this season... I think there's still plenty of reason to believe DeLoach will turn the defense around.
The main reason to believe in him is his past success here. Granted, history doesn't earn him a lifetime pass from being judged on results. And getting bad results under worse circumstances than his predecessor doesn't excuse the bad results themselves. And improving the worst breakdowns a little doesn't eliminate the breakdowns that are still happening.
But I can't think of any North Texas coach since the return to 1-A football that was more deserving of the benefit of the doubt than Gary DeLoach.
4 comments:
These statistics are unbelievable! It's just that...aw screw it...I've got to go fix a turkey sandwich and eat it.
great article...... you can really do some research loanias...
Just what I was expecting from timeout.
*cough* less facts *cough* more LOLstangs! *cough*
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